Description

Background:

Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future. To do this, we know our teams do their best work when they are diverse and every team member feels that they belong. We welcome diverse backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be stronger and have long-term impact.  

Mercy Corps has developed a Crisis Analysis (CA) function to support our programming in the most complex contexts, including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and others. The Crisis Analysis supports Mercy Corps’ in-country programming as well as the wider humanitarian and development response in the region through the provision of quality, timely and relevant analytical products. This analysis is grounded in Mercy Corps’ position as an operational NGO, keeping our products constructive and relevant for humanitarian, early recovery, and development responders and donors within a given crisis. The work leverages Mercy Corps’ Crisis Analysis to support ongoing and emerging policy and advocacy efforts underpinned by a bespoke body of evidence and grounded in contextual realities.

Purpose / Project Description:

The “Fragile Borderlands: Drivers of Drought Adaptation and Instability in MENA” project by Mercy Corps examines how drought-driven livelihood stress reshapes informal and illicit cross-border trade across three fragile border regions — the Syria–Iraq borderlands, the Lebanon–Syria frontier, and Yemen’s coastal zones. The study explores how these informal trade networks, involving food, fuel, livestock, and water, can either support climate adaptation or exacerbate insecurity, depending on governance quality, market structures, and local power dynamics, including who can access routes and markets, on what terms, and at what cost.  

Using a comparative mixed-methods approach combining geospatial analysis, policy analyses, market data, and field-based qualitative research, the project will analyse these intertwined dynamics across each of the three case studies. The aim of each assessment is to identify the socio-environmental conditions reshaping cross border trade and its implication. Ultimately, the study will compare findings across the three cases to identify when drought coping mechanisms stabilise livelihoods and when they fuel exclusion and conflict. 

More precisely the methodology combines:

1. mapping drought hotspots and candidate trade routes/nodes using remote sensing; 
2. desk-based assessments of governance (laws, policies, border/customs practices, and unwritten norms), market incentives (price gaps, subsidies, trade controls), power dynamics (brokers, rents/fees, protection arrangements), and vulnerabilities (including gendered and displacement-related constraints); 
3. targeted KIIs with livelihood groups and key formal and informal actors to validate routes, desk assessment and trace how market trends, governance, power dynamics and vulenrabilities play out during drought versus non-drought periods. For each case study, the work will generate a consolidated, evidence-backed assessment that underpins the final outputs before external dissemination.
4. Outputs will include peer-reviewed research, policy briefs, blogs, infographics, interactive visual maps, and stakeholder events to inform more inclusive and conflict-sensitive climate adaptation policies across the MENA region. 

Consultancy focus: The consultant will lead the Syria–Lebanon case study assessment by developing a desk review and analyzing primary KII data, producing an evidence-backed case study report that will feed the project’s outputs. More specifically, within the program framework, the consultant will:

1. develop and contextualize a desk review for the selected case study spanning across governance and access arrangements, market dynamics and key commodities, local power dynamics, and differentiated vulnerabilities; (
2. review and adapt the semi-structured interview guide and key informant list to ensure local relevance; 
3. conduct high-priority KIIs, if needed as well as feasible and safe; 
4. analyze primary data collected through KIIs (including KIIs conducted by other field researchers),
5. synthesize desk and primary evidence into a concise case study assessment that will feed the project’s policy briefs, presentations, and scientific outputs. 
6. provide light-touch technical review of the project’ outcomes to ensure accuracy and evidence-backed claims; 
7. support engagement and validation through participation in relevant workshops and selected donor meetings/final presentations, as feasible within the level of effort.

Consultant Deliverables:

The Consultant will deliver:

• Inception package review (upon onboarding): A rapid review of the inception report to refine the proposed approach and data collection tools so they are appropriate to the Syria-Lebanon context. This will include suggested revisions to the semi-structured interview guides, and the key informant list to ensure feasibility.
• Hotspot/route validation:  Technical inputs to support validation of hotspot and corridor assumptions (in coordination with the geospatial lead), and contribution to final micro-site selection for the Lebanon–Syria case study.
• Targeted desk review for the Syria-Lebanon case study: A structured desk review that deepens the baseline analysis initiated during inception, focused on:
• Governance and access arrangements: relevant laws, policies, regulations, and border/customs practices, as well as informal norms and customary practices shaping movement, passage, and enforcement in practice;
• Key actors and power dynamics: control over routes and nodes, brokerage systems, rents/fees, and protection arrangements (including risks of coercion);
• Market dynamics and trends: key commodities and flows, incentives, price regimes/subsidies, transaction/transport constraints, and trade controls;
• Differentiated vulnerabilities: livelihood exposure, displacement, marginalisation, and gender-related barriers to assets and mobility.
• This deliverable will include an annotated source and reference list and a note flagging key evidence gaps and uncertainties.
• (Optional) Primary data collection (KIIs): Conduct a limited number of high-priority KIIs with key stakeholders (as feasible and safe), targeting key actors essential to understand power dynamics, and other underlying mechanisms.
• (Optional) Produce short KII synthesis notes summarizing findings and implications for subsequent data collection.
• Systematic analysis of primary data: Systematic analysis of KII data, including all KIIs conducted across the Syria-Lebanon case study
• Consolidated Lebanon-Syria case study assessment: A rigorous, well-referenced case study report synthesizing desk-based evidence and KII findings to provide a comprehensive analysis of how drought-related stress reshapes informal/illicit cross-border trade and its implications for livelihoods and stability. The report will explicitly assess governance arrangements, market dynamics, power relations, and differentiated vulnerabilities; document sources; triangulate evidence; and clearly flag limitations. This assessment will serve as the evidence base for policy briefs, presentations, and scientific outputs.
• Technical review and validation of project outputs (light-touch QA): Technical review of draft policy brief(s), donor presentation materials, and relevant scientific paper sections drawing on the Lebanon–Syria case study, to ensure accuracy, and evidence-backed claims.
• Engagement and uptake support: Participation in relevant stakeholder workshops/validation sessions and selected donor meetings, as feasible within the level of effort, including contribution to refining recommendations based on feedback.

Timeline

The consultancy will consist of 15 to 20 days, depending on expertise, access and project’s needs. The study will take place between March and November 2026, covering the complete cycle from initial framework adaptation to final donor reporting. 

Reporting Line

The Consultant will report to:
Regional Crisis Analysis Senior Manager. 

Working Relationships:

The Consultant will work closely with:

• Regional Crisis Analysis team
• Regional Technical Advisors

Required Experience & Skills:

• 5–10 years of analytical experience within a think tank, research institution, consulting firm, UN agency, or NGO.
• Strong experience working in Lebanon and Syria, with a strong field experience and access.
• Proven experience working on fragile and, conflict-affected settings
• Strong expertise in (geo)politics and political-economy analysis, including mapping local power structures, access arrangements, and dynamics across communities, regions, and countries.
• Demonstrated ability to analyse governance in practice at local and national levels, including formal rules and policies as well as informal norms, customary practices, and enforcement patterns.
• Ability to conduct applied market and livelihoods analysis, linking market trends and incentives with socio-political dynamics, inclusion/exclusion, and conflict risks.
• Master’s degree or equivalent experience in political science, international relations, public policy, investigative journalism, geography, environmental studies, or a related field.
• Demonstrated experience producing high-quality analytical outputs with evidence of publication.
• Proven ability to design and manage research processes, including desk research, data collection tools, data analysis, and report production.
• Excellent English-language analytical writing skills.
• Strong oral Arabic language skills.

Strongly Preferred / Advantage:

Expertise in:

• Informal economies and cross-border trade smuggling activities.
• Climate and environmental vulnerabilities, risks, and impact (desirable)
• Market systems and price movements analysis

Application Requirements

Interested applicants should submit by 15 February 2026 

• An up-to-date CV highlighting relevant analytical, regional, and thematic experience.
• A recent and relevant writing sample (in lieu of a cover letter), preferably related to climate, fragility, borderlands, or political economy analysis.
• A cover sheet indicating:
• Thematic expertise (e.g., climate adaptation, drought, informal trade, fragility, political economy)
• Geographic expertise
• Proposed day rate
• Availability
• Relevant language skills

Team Efficiency and Effectiveness 

Achieving our mission starts with how we build our team and collaborate. By bringing together individuals with a variety of experiences, backgrounds, and perspectives, we strengthen our ability to solve complex challenges and drive innovation. We foster a culture of trust and respect, where every team member is valued for their contributions, empowered to reach their full potential, and motivated to do their best work.

We recognize that building a strong and effective team is an ongoing process, and we remain committed to learning, improving, and growing together.

Equal Employment Opportunity

Mercy Corps is an equal opportunity employer that does not tolerate discrimination on any basis. We actively seek out different backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be collectively stronger and have sustained global impact. 

We are committed to providing an environment of respect and psychological safety where equal employment opportunities are available to all. We do not engage in or tolerate discrimination on the basis of race, color, gender identity, gender expression, religion, age, sexual orientation, national or ethnic origin, disability (including HIV/AIDS status), marital status, military veteran status or any other protected group in the locations where we work.

Safeguarding & Ethics
Mercy Corps team members are expected to support all efforts toward accountability, specifically to our stakeholders and to international standards guiding international relief and development work, while actively engaging communities as equal partners in the design, monitoring and evaluation of our field projects. Team members are expected to conduct themselves in a professional manner and respect local laws, customs and MC's policies, procedures, and values at all times and in all in-country venues.